Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump
The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.
There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the six tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need just 35.
Tossups
State | Elec. votes | 2020 margin | 2024 polling |
---|---|---|---|
Michigan |
15 |
D +2.8 |
Harris +1.5 › |
Pennsylvania |
19 |
D +1.2 |
Trump +0.1 › |
Wisconsin |
10 |
D +0.6 |
Harris +1.8 › |
Georgia |
16 |
D +0.2 |
Not enough polls |
Arizona |
11 |
D +0.3 |
Not enough polls |
Nevada |
6 |
D +2.4 |
Not enough polls |
The six states rated as tossups were all won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. If the race comes down to these places, Mr. Trump has an advantage in the electoral math. He could win with just two electorally valuable tossup states — Pennsylvania and Georgia — while all of Ms. Harris’s paths to victory include at least three. If Mr. Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris would still need at least three other tossups (in addition to Georgia) to win.
Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democrat or Republican could also come into play.
Lean Democrat
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
Minnesota Minn. |
10 |
D +7.1 |
Nebraska 2nd District Neb. 2 |
1 |
D +6.5 |
New Hampshire N.H. |
4 |
D +0.4 |
Lean Republican
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
North Carolina N.C. |
16 |
R +1.3 |
Likely Democrat
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
New Mexico N.M. |
5 |
D +10.8 |
Virginia Va. |
13 |
D +10.1 |
Maine Maine |
2 |
D +9.1 |
Likely Republican
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
Florida Fla. |
30 |
R +3.4 |
Maine 2nd District Me. 2 |
1 |
R +7.9 |
Texas Texas |
40 |
R +5.6 |