In Michigan, Trade Policies and the Water Crisis Loom Large for Voters

October 19, 2024

Genesee County, Mich., home to Flint and the birthplace of General Motors, has been loyal to the Democratic Party for decades. But after years and years of challenges — the closure of auto plants, an exodus of residents, a water crisis — the liberal stronghold is becoming a bona fide battleground. And with about 400,000 residents, the county could help tip the presidential election in this critical swing state.

In and around Flint, voters from both parties described feeling let down by corporations, especially auto companies, and by their political leaders.

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While many suburban areas of Genesee County are prosperous, and downtown Flint has seen rapid redevelopment, other blocks have more vacant lots than occupied houses. About 41 percent of Flint residents, and about 18 percent of people in the wider county, live below the federal poverty line, both well above the statewide rate of 14 percent.

Vice President Kamala Harris is having some success mobilizing parts of the old Democratic coalition, which includes the union workers and Black voters who have long helped power her party’s wins around Flint.

But interviews with more than 20 people across Genesee County also showed that voters still had doubts about Ms. Harris. Some felt their lives were better under former President Donald J. Trump.

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Auto Industry Fortunes

Across party and racial lines, inside and outside of Flint city limits, residents described frustration with increasing food and housing prices. For some, it was an inconvenience but not an existential threat. For others, it was forcing painful questions, like whether they could afford rent or how often they could buy meat.

Tyonna McIntyre, 59, who lives just outside Flint and works the overnight shift as a dock worker, said she was seeking out sales and cutting back on purchases like ground beef. “Everything is high,” she said. “Ground beef used to be so cheap.”

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The auto industry is inextricably tied to the economic health of the area: The midcentury boom of General Motors made Genesee County a place where a high school diploma and a strong work ethic could secure a middle-class life. But the downturns that followed left thousands jobless.

Pride in the county’s auto industry is still evident in the number of locally built Chevy and GMC trucks seen driving around Flint. But there is worry among both Democrats and Republicans about the city’s future.

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Politicians regularly come to town promising to revitalize carmaking, and warning that the other party could doom it. Both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have visited Flint in recent weeks with clashing pitches on electric vehicles.

Republicans have made progress winning over union workers and retirees, but auto workers and other union members have long been a significant part of the Democratic base. Many of those unions, including the United Auto Workers, have endorsed Ms. Harris.

“For the first time in a very, very long time, I feel secure in my job,” said Art Reyes, 57, who has worked for more than 30 years at General Motors and once served in local U.A.W. leadership. He said he was voting for Ms. Harris. “I see the focus of onshoring things, which is a complete reversal of the trend of the last 40 years.”

Yet some former Democratic voters said they had been won over by Mr. Trump’s nationalist message on trade, the economy and immigration.

Many in town point to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which took effect in 1994, as a moment when the local economy took a turn for the worse. Mr. Trump railed against that deal, but ultimately replaced it as president with a similar trade pact with Canada and Mexico.

Bill Bain, 66, is a former U.A.W. worker who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Mr. Trump later won him over with his message on trade, and Mr. Bain was elected to a township board in 2020 as a Republican.

“I saw he had good policies,” Mr. Bain said of Mr. Trump, “and he did what he said. He said he was going to get rid of NAFTA, and he did.”

Mandy Christle, 49, who lives just north of Flint, says she often hears people complaining about high prices. She views the economy differently.

“Personally I don’t think things are really all that bad,” said Ms. Christle, who plans to vote for Ms. Harris and who has worked at an auto parts store and a McDonald’s.