A Democratic Brawl in Virginia May Put a House Seat in Play

Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, in the suburbs of Washington, was never meant to be a linchpin in the battle for control of the House. But with the ugliest Democratic primary campaign of 2024 finally ending, national Democrats may be nervously watching as the results roll in on Tuesday night.

The front-runner, State Representative Dan Helmer, is fending off a last-minute accusation of sexual harassment that he strenuously denies. Another top candidate, Eileen Filler-Corn, has been attacked by a progressive political action committee over a donation to a pro-Israel group that then endorsed her.

One of the field’s top fund-raisers, Krystle Kaul, faces charges of embellishing her résumé well beyond the usual flourishes of a political campaign. And amid the flying mud, another front-runner, State Senator Suhas Subramanyam, beat back a report that he improperly put employees of his State Senate staff on his campaign payroll, an accusation he says is categorically false.

All of this is a surprisingly brutal coda to the political story of Representative Jennifer Wexton, the current Democratic representative who flipped a Republican seat in the 2018 wave, then announced her retirement last year after being diagnosed with a rare neurological disorder, for which there is no effective treatment.

A dozen Democrats are in the race to succeed her, many with sterling political résumés. Ms. Filler-Corn was the first woman and first Jewish speaker of the Virginia State House. Mr. Subramanyam is a current state senator for much of the district. Mr. Helmer is a Rhodes scholar and an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan, Iraq, and as a member of the Virginia House.

But those backgrounds and ambitions laid the groundwork for a campaign that has scorched the earth of what was once Republican horse country and is now a diverse suburban landscape. Many of the candidates know one another — Mr. Helmer was part of a group of Virginia State House Democrats who ousted Ms. Filler-Corn as their leader in 2022 after the party lost control of the chamber. And much to the dismay of local party leaders, many of the bigger names refused to drop out and rally around a rival in order to consolidate the field.

None of this would matter much if the district was overwhelmingly Democratic (it isn’t) or control of the House wasn’t on a knife’s edge (it is). Until the defeat of Representative Barbara Comstock, a Republican, in 2018, Virginia’s 10th was reliably red for nearly 40 years, and control of the chamber next year could hinge on only a handful of races across the country. With a Senate map that favors Republicans and former President Donald J. Trump leading in most polls, House races have taken on outsize importance.

“We need a candidate who will not put this seat at risk, and this is not a slam-dunk Democratic seat,” Mr. Subramanyam said on Monday. “We cannot hurt our ability to win back the House, which could be the last firewall to protect democracy for future generations.”

Ms. Wexton endorsed Mr. Subramanyam in May, hoping to rally Democrats and winnow the field. Two days later, The Washington Post endorsed Mr. Helmer, scrambling the deck again.

Then last week, an anonymous Democratic official, speaking through her lawyer, accused Mr. Helmer of groping her and later making sexually crude remarks. On June 10, three former Loudon County Democratic Party chairmen and the current deputy chairmen backed the accuser, releasing a statement saying the party had developed its sexual harassment policies in response to “the egregious harassment” of a Loudoun County party member by Mr. Helmer.

In short order, the Virginia chapter of the National Organization for Women, Ms. Filler-Corn, Ms. Kaul, Mayor Michele Davis Younger of Manassas, Va., and others called on Mr. Helmer to drop from the race. Mr. Helmer refused, denouncing “baseless charges” leveled “a week before an election by people who have endorsed my opponents.”

For their part, national Republicans have watched with barely disguised glee.

“We would never comment before the primary election about a Democrat with serious ethical baggage that would make for devastating political attack ads and alienate a large bloc of independents and Democrat base voters,” said Will Reinert, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “That would be presumptuous.”

Democratic voters in the district peppered by texts attacking Mr. Helmer could be forgiven if they do not know where to turn. Ms. Filler-Corn has also been deluged by negative advertising by the liberal Virginia Democratic Action Political Action Committee, which called her a “bad Democrat.” The group also filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission saying her state political action committee transferred $110,000 to the Democratic Majority for Israel the day after the PAC endorsed her for Congress.

Ms. Filler-Corn responded defiantly: “It is shameful that I, as the woman best positioned to win this primary, have faced hundreds of thousands in baseless attack ads funded by donors to other candidates in this race,” she said.

Ms. Kaul, one of the top three fund-raisers in the race, has faced questions from rivals and some district voters, largely around where she got more than $552,000 to lend to her campaign and how she has been able to translate a short career as a military contractor and communications professional into a campaign claim of “helping to lead U.S. intelligence and defense operations at the C.I.A., the United States Central Command and the broader Department of Defense.”

Ms. Kaul denied any intent to inflate her work. And she said her personal investment in her campaign was a testament to the seriousness of her first effort at elective office.

Then late last month, a local news outlet reported that four of the five people on Mr. Subramanyam’s campaign staff are also taxpayer-funded members of his Virginia Senate staff. Mr. Subramanyam said he had “double- and triple-checked” to make sure no tax money had gone to campaign work.

Besides, he said, “we are one of many campaigns who have someone on the legislative side and the campaign. It’s pretty common in Virginia.”

Meantime, the eight-candidate Republican field has narrowed to four, including Aliscia Andrews, a Marine Corps veteran, and Alexander Isaac, a retired Army lieutenant colonel.

Such credible Republicans were a big reason Avram Fechter, a former Loudoun County Democratic Committee chairman, said he spearheaded the public letter calling out Mr. Helmer.

A Republican could absolutely win the seat, he said, adding that he believed that if his party nominated Mr. Helmer, it would be taking a risk in November.