After Armed Rebellion, Putin Tries to Reinforce His Defenses

Mr. Putin also apparently pledged more weapons to one of his most loyal security chiefs. The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, a former Putin bodyguard, bragged last week that the president had promised to arm his forces with tanks and artillery.

And the Russian leader has telegraphed confidence in Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, whose ouster Mr. Prigozhin had long demanded for problems on the battlefield, but who has worked for Mr. Putin ever since the president first took office in 1999. Mr. Shoigu spoke publicly about the rebellion for the first time on Monday in remarks carried by Russian state media, declaring: “These plans have failed because, above all, the personnel of the armed forces have stayed true to their covenant and military duty.”

But rewarding the military and security services with more money and power carries its own risks. Mr. Golosov, the St. Petersburg political scientist, warned that other factions within them might be tempted to mount their own uprising, having witnessed Mr. Prigozhin’s ability to launch one.

“It’s quite possible that, looking at how the Prigozhin mutiny developed, some other players in the security services will see this as, let’s say, a more plausible course of action for themselves than they did before the Prigozhin experience,” Mr. Golosov said.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts say, will act as a further destabilizing force. It was the battlefield role of Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force that apparently prompted Mr. Putin to overlook the warlord’s criticism of the war effort. Now, the Kremlin may face the challenge of waging war in Ukraine without parts of Wagner — and maintaining the balance in an increasingly fragile system.

It is a system that arose in peacetime, prioritizing loyalty over effectiveness, said Nikolay Petrov, a guest scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. But in war, the Kremlin needs both — and it is struggling to find players who are both effective and loyal, as the example of Mr. Prigozhin showed. That raises the possibility that Mr. Putin’s renewed emphasis on loyalty in the aftermath of the mutiny could affect Russia’s battlefield performance.

“Putin and his whole system now face a dilemma,” Mr. Petrov said. “If you keep the principle of loyalty as more important than effectiveness, then there won’t be the risks that were associated with the mutiny. But there won’t be any hope for a more effective functioning of the system, either.”