Guatemala Voters Cast Ballots in Contentious Election

Voters in Guatemala, the most populous nation in Central America, cast ballots on Sunday in presidential elections that are drawing attention to what many observers called the erosion of the rule of law.

In a field of more than 20 candidates, none were expected to secure a majority to win in the first round of voting, with observers predicting a runoff on Aug. 20 between the top two finishers.

The electoral authority barred several top candidates who were viewed as threatening to the political and economic establishment. That move was seen as another assault on Guatemala’s fraying democracy. Under an increasingly authoritarian government, the judiciary has forced into exile dozens of prosecutors and judges focused on battling corruption.

Press freedom has also come under attack. This month, the founder of a leading newspaper that exposed many instances of graft was sentenced to six years in prison after being convicted of money laundering.

The race had narrowed in recent weeks to three leading candidates hewing to the conservative status quo: Sandra Torres, 67, a former first lady previously arrested on accusations of campaign finance violations; Zury Ríos, 55, the daughter of a dictator convicted of genocide against Indigenous Guatemalans; and Edmond Mulet, 72, a former diplomat facing scrutiny over his work arranging adoptions of Guatemalan children by Canadian families.

Partial results made available Sunday night in Guatemala suggest the race may hold some surprises. With 25 percent of votes counted, Ms. Torres was in the lead with 15 percent. But Bernardo Arévalo, a centrist running on an anti-corruption platform, was in second with about 12 percent of the vote.

Still, results could change considerably as more votes are tallied. More definitive results are expected sometime on Monday.

Officials said voting was mostly calm, but there were reports of violence in the lead-up in the municipality of San José del Golfo, about 17 miles from Guatemala City. The electoral board said polling station workers on a bus heading to training on Saturday were stopped by a group as they reached the municipality.

The workers were then forcibly taken off the bus, doused with gasoline and threatened with being lit on fire before the police intervened. The board said that the workers resigned after the attack, and that centers in San José del Golfo did not have enough volunteers to receive votes.

On Sunday, the police fired tear gas at a crowd in San José del Golfo after reports that people from other municipalities had been transferred in buses to vote there. By midday, voting in San José del Golfo had been suspended. More than 100 miles west in San Martín Zapotitlán, the police arrested 11 people in connection with irregularities including burning ballots, authorities said.

Other irregularities reported by election observers included isolated instances of buying votes in exchange for food and cash in parts of the country. The authorities received 208 complaints, largely in connection with threats and claims of coercion, and at least 31 people were arrested in different parts of Guatemala on allegations of violating electoral laws.

In the voting center in the basement of the central park of Guatemala City, Silvia Martínez, 68, said she was motivated by hopes that “Guatemala will improve and end corruption.”

While she declined to say which candidate she supported, Ms. Martínez said she hoped the winner would pay attention to the needs of migrants as the number of Guatemalans leaving the country climbed.

“The foreign ministry has abandoned them despite the fact that they are the source of much economic income for Guatemala,” Ms. Martínez said.

Runoffs have become common in Guatemala since peace accords in 1996 ended a civil war that lasted 36 years and was marked by brutal counterinsurgency tactics. Guatemala’s current president, Alejandro Giammattei, is barred from seeking re-election.

But even though a sharp increase in violent crime and a punishingly high cost of living have made Mr. Giammattei, a conservative, deeply unpopular, the leading candidates in the race generally also lean conservative, suggesting continuity with the country’s political establishment.

A top theme throughout the campaign season has been calls to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on gangs and violent crime. The number of homicides in Guatemala — fueled in part by powerful gangs — rose nearly 6 percent in 2022 from the previous year, and there was also a sharp increase in the number of murder victims who showed signs of torture. Many Guatemalans cite fears of extortion and crime as reasons to emigrate.

All three leading candidates have embraced proposals to carry out El Salvador-inspired policies in Guatemala. Ms. Ríos, for instance, has equated gangs in Guatemala to the guerrilla activity her father waged war against, vowing to harden security policies. Similarly, Mr. Mulet has vowed to build a high-security prison and to increase police salaries.

Each of the candidates has also put forward proposals to ease economic hardship in Guatemala, where about 59 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. The lack of economic opportunity in Guatemala is one of the main factors driving people to emigrate. Guatemalans rank among the fastest-growing groups of migrants in the United States; the number of Guatemalans in the United States has increased by about 33 percent from 2010 to 2021.

Ms. Torres has promised to increase cash transfers and food assistance to poor families. She was married to Álvaro Colom, who was the president of Guatemala from 2008 to 2012 and who died this year at 71. They divorced in 2011, when Ms. Torres first tried to run for president and tried to circumvent a law prohibiting a president’s relatives from running for office.

She was still barred from running that year, but was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections. After the 2019 election, she was accused of campaign finance violations and spent time under house arrest.

Ms. Torres prevailed in that case late last year when a judge ruled that there was insufficient evidence to proceed to trial, allowing her to run again. On the campaign trail, she has been able to draw support from her party, National Unity of Hope, which is widely known in Guatemala. Heading into the vote she appeared to be the leading candidate with levels of support hovering around 20 percent.

Guatemala won plaudits during the past decade for efforts to curb graft. But that initiative, led by a panel of international investigators backed by the United Nations, was systematically dismantled in recent years as entrenched political and economic interests started hounding anticorruption judges and prosecutors from the country.

Ms. Ríos, another familiar figure in Guatemalan politics, has run a campaign with deep establishment ties. She is the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt, a dictator in the early 1980s who was convicted in 2013 of genocide for trying to exterminate the Ixil, a Mayan Indian community.

Ms. Ríos has repeatedly claimed that no genocide ever took place, and her ultraconservative party is led by figures with links to her father.

Still, while Ms. Ríos promotes her conservative credentials, in Congress she made alliances in an effort to win legislative approval for bills aimed at improving conditions for women and L.G.T.B.Q. people.

The other leading candidate, Mr. Mulet, a lawyer and a former diplomat who has served as Guatemala’s ambassador to the United States and the European Union, has warned that the country is sliding toward an “authoritarian model” of government.

While Mr. Mulet has drawn attention to the rolling back of anticorruption initiatives, he is known for his work as a lawyer in the 1980s, when he was arrested in connection with arranging adoptions of Guatemalan children by Canadian families.

Though Mr. Mulet was set free and denied any wrongdoing, he has had to spend time on the campaign trail explaining his involvement in the case.

Mr. Mulet is representing a newly formed party without any seats in Congress, but that has made way for a competitive coalition of candidates at the national and local level in the election on Sunday.