In Wake of Election Defeat, Germany’s Weakened Leader Will Slog On

Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany heads to the Group of 7 summit meeting in Italy on Thursday as a diminished leader after Sunday’s battering in elections for the European Parliament.

All three of the parties in his coalition government earned fewer votes than the conservative opposition — combined. The far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, showed itself to be the country’s second-most popular party.

While an even worse defeat in France for President Emmanuel Macron at the hands of the far right prompted him to call fresh elections for the National Assembly, no such outcome is expected in Germany, where the results reverberate differently.

Here’s a look at why.

Snap Elections Are Rare

Some opposition leaders said the results showed such a lack of confidence in the chancellor and his coalition that he, too, should call new federal elections.

The government replied definitively: no.

The reason could be as simple as the difference between the French and German systems. Whereas President Macron could call a new election for the French Parliament, a new vote in Germany can only happen at the end of a complicated procedure triggered by a parliamentary majority vote of no confidence in the chancellor. That makes snap elections extremely rare in Germany — happening only three times in the 75-year history of the Federal Republic.

While the three parties in the coalition government took a beating on the E.U. level, at home they still have a majority of seats in the German Parliament. As unpopular as the coalition is, then, it is most likely to slog on, and hope that it can turn things around before the next regular federal election in 2025.

A Weak Coalition Remains

But that does not mean that the consequences of the European elections will not be felt.

The results showed deep public distaste for the coalition, which has proved to be an unwieldy and often tense partnership between the chancellor’s Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats.

Less than one in four Germans are satisfied with the government, the lowest number in more than a decade, according to an opinion poll by infratest dimap last month, commissioned by a public broadcaster.

In the European elections, Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats came in third, with nearly 14 percent of the vote. The Greens trailed with almost 12 percent and the Free Democrats got just over 5 percent.

“The coalition parties are in a very bad shape for already some time; the three parties forming the coalition are in permanent conflict,” said Armin Steinbach, a professor at the business school Hautes Études Commerciales, or HEC, in Paris. “This created the impression by the voter that there is a government that is not unified.”

Mr. Scholz acknowledged the bad showing and vowed that the “citizens’ trust in the work can be won.”

The next test for the coalition will come in about four weeks, when the parties must work together to balance the 2025 budget, where they will aim to wring out at least 15 billion euros (more than $16 billion) in savings.

“If they do not manage to come up to a solution to this, I would not rule out that the stability of their coalition would break up,” Professor Steinbach of HEC said. “I think what we will see is less conflict between the parties in order to signal to the voters: ‘We understood that you are unsatisfied.’”

A Muddled Message

Analysts and party leaders seemed to agree that, at a minimum, Mr. Scholz’s coalition partners need to sharpen their message and do a better job of convincing Germans that they are working in their interests.

That is especially the case when it comes to the issues now most important to voters, including the economy, migration and the war in Ukraine.

In opposition, the conservatives have been clear in advocating for sharper immigration measures, criticizing sustainable energy reforms and pushing to send the long-range rocket system Taurus to Ukraine. The far right, which tends to be more pro-Russian, agrees on the first points, but wants to end to German military support of Ukraine. By contrast, the governing coalition’s message is muddled.

Jan Philipp Albrecht, a former state minister for the Green party, which champions the environment, blamed its poor performance on the fact that his party, once an upstart, is now firmly part of the establishment. “It’s not particularly sexy in government to work toward changes in realpolitik and to make a huge number of compromises in the process,” Mr. Albrecht said.

The chancellor’s Social Democrats ran on a “peace” platform even as they have been a significant contributor of miliary aid to Ukraine, a divisive policy in Germany.

And the Free Democrats remain focused on a no-deficit budget, even with the many additional spending demands brought by the war in Ukraine.

One of the most notable shifts was in how young people voted and it was the first time 16- and 17-year-old Germans were permitted to vote. The AfD rose 10 percentage points in the under-30 crowd while the Greens saw an 18-point drop among those voters.

What Now?

With all three coalition parties trending badly, there is no real incentive for them to dissolve this government, just to go through another potentially painful election.

Any election would be especially risky for the coalition’s smallest member, the Free Democrats, a party perilously close to the minimum threshold of five percent required to sit in the Germany Parliament.

Though the Free Democrats, a pro-business, free-market party, are most at odds with the other two more progressive parties in the government, ending the partnership could push the party to the political sidelines for years.

Perhaps most critically, an election now could result in a difficult choice for the mainstream conservative opposition, which has vowed never to form a coalition with the AfD.

Each new German election has tended to test that proposition. The next test will come in three East German states, which are voting for their state houses in September. The AfD is expected to do very well and all three coalition parties are expected to suffer again.

“The question is on the municipal and on the regional level, whether at some point we get electoral results where there is no way not to work with them,” said Daniela Schwarzer, a foreign-policy analyst, referring to the AfD. “We are not there, but the question is being asked.”