NATO Stresses Risk of Wagner Group’s Potential Relocation to Belarus

Ms. Kallas, at the news conference in Brussels, said that Estonia, which donates more than 40 percent of its military budget to Ukraine, would increase its spending on its own military to 3 percent of its G.D.P., above NATO’s target of 2 percent.

And Mr. Stoltenberg said that the Wagner rebellion demonstrated “that President Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine is a big strategic mistake.” But he warned NATO allies not to underestimate Moscow’s capabilities.

“We must continue to support Ukraine, and we must keep our defenses strong to send a clear message to Moscow and Minsk that NATO protects every inch of allied territory,” he said, referring to the governments of Russia and Belarus. He said that it was too early to tell what Wagner’s possible relocation could mean for the region.

In late May, NATO, which provides collective defense to the Baltics, concluded an ambitious military exercise in Estonia, called Spring Storm, involving some 14,000 troops from at least 11 countries. NATO’s reach in the Baltics was greatly enhanced by Finland’s entry into the military alliance in March. Gaining access to that country’s military, as well as Finnish airspace, ports and sea lanes, also improved NATO’s ability to deter Moscow’s aggression.

Ms. Kallas made additional comments after the news conference in Brussels, saying that it was “increasingly clear now that Ukraine is winning this war,” and that it was time to increase pressure on Russia and send a strong message of alliance unity and perseverance to Moscow.

She also urged the European Union to use seized Russian financial assets to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, while admitting that some member states were opposed to setting the legal precedent of doing so.

The war in Ukraine will end, she said, “when Russia realizes it has made a mistake and cannot win this war.” But its aggression, she said, must not be rewarded with any territorial gains, or it will try again, as it did after annexing Crimea in 2014 and getting a weak Western response.