Tracking the Senate’s Most Competitive Races

Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election in November, but the balance of power in the chamber will likely be decided by seven of the most competitive races, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report. Currently Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, with four independent senators caucusing with the party.

The three most competitive races are for seats currently held by Democrats, including in Michigan, where four-term Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring. Democrats cannot lose any of these tossup seats and still hold on to their majority without making up the difference in a more difficult contest.

Tossup states

State Candidates 2020 pres. margin
Michigan

D +2.8

Montana

R +16.4

Ohio

R +8.0

Lean Democratic

State Candidates 2020 pres. margin
Arizona

D +0.3

Nevada

D +2.4

Pennsylvania

D +1.2

Wisconsin

D +0.6

Lean Republican

No seats with this rating

Likely Democratic

State Candidates 2020 pres. margin
Maryland

D +33.2

Likely Republican

State Candidates 2020 pres. margin
Florida

R +3.4

Texas

R +5.6

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