Weekend Weather Forecast: Winter Storm to Bring ‘Significant Precipitation’

It’s December, the first month of meteorological winter, and temperatures across the Eastern United States this weekend will feel more like early autumn. But the surge of warmth will bring with it a surge of moisture that will deliver “significant precipitation” from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast through Sunday, according to forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center.

The warm weather will begin to build Thursday across the Plains, with temperatures jumping 20 to 30 degrees above what is typical for the beginning of December. High temperatures are likely to reach the 60s and 70s across Kansas. By Friday, that warmth will start easing east, and high temperatures this weekend — before it starts raining — will be 10 to 20 degrees above average from the South surging well into the Northeast.

The warmth will be progressively pushed out by a colder air mass through the weekend. Clashing air masses will create severe storms, including possibly a few tornadoes in portions of the South, flooding concerns from Florida to Maine, and a mix of snow and ice in parts of the Northeast.

Here’s where to expect extreme weather.

A few tornadoes are possible in the South.

The storm begins to ramp up late Friday night just west of the Mississippi River with severe storms capable of producing hail in eastern Oklahoma and most of Arkansas.

During the day Saturday, scattered severe thunderstorms are more likely in an area covering Memphis to Houston. These storms could bring damaging winds, hail and possibly a few tornadoes. While it may seem crazy to think of tornadoes in December, this cluster of southern states is, on average, the area of the country that sees the most tornadoes during this month.

There’s a widespread risk of flooding.

These thunderstorms will also deliver beneficial rainfall to the South, which has been experiencing drought conditions. Even though the area may receive one to three inches of rain, the ground and stream beds are so dry that the flood concern, while possible, remains at a lower risk level.

By Sunday, the influx of moisture will feed into the eastern United States, delivering rain from Florida to Maine. The above-average amount of moisture in the air should lead to a low risk of flooding across wide parts of the region. However, the storm will sweep through quickly enough that it is likely to limit the rainfall amounts, limiting the overall flood risk in most areas.

More than 40 daily rainfall records from the Mid-Atlantic to New England will be challenged on Sunday.

Winter weather returns for some Sunday night.

As colder air pushes through Sunday and into Monday, the rain will transition to a wintry mix and snow, most likely affecting higher elevations of the Appalachians and the interior Northeast.

A quick reminder that despite the warm weekend, we are indeed headed deeper into winter.