How This Year’s Fire Season Could Pan Out

There’s no doubt about it: The 2024 wildfire season in California has begun.

Propelled by dry and windy weather, more than two dozen fires have erupted across the state in the past week, including the two biggest blazes of the year so far — the Post fire northwest of Los Angeles and the Sites fire in Colusa County, northwest of Sacramento, which had grown to more than 19,000 acres as of Wednesday evening and was only 10 percent contained.

“We have entered fire season unambiguously,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at U.C.L.A., said in an online briefing. “I think we’re going to see a greatly increased level of fire activity this year, compared to the last two years.”

After two rainy winters in a row, there is more grass and vegetation than usual available to burn, Swain said. And though the land isn’t unusually parched yet, he said, it’s likely to become dangerously dry in the next few months, setting the stage for extreme and difficult-to-control fires.

(Fire season is looking worrisome elsewhere in the West as well. Two wildfires in southern New Mexico were burning out of control Wednesday evening, scorching more than 23,000 acres and prompting the evacuation of thousands of people from their homes.)

In California, 2022 and 2023 were mild fire years, for a welcome change. Wildland fires burned roughly 325,000 acres and damaged 70 buildings across the state in 2023; two years earlier, the acreage figure was nearly eight times as high — more than 2.5 million in all — and 3,500 structures were damaged.

California was lucky last year, with an exceptionally wet winter followed by an unusually cool summer. Then the remnants of Hurricane Hilary dumped so much rain on Southern California in August that it effectively ended the fire season when it ordinarily would be peaking.

That’s unlikely to happen this year.

Though 2024 also began with a wet winter, it wasn’t quite as extreme as last year’s. Warm weather already appears to be parching vegetation and making it more flammable, as the many blazes that began over the past few days have shown. The vegetation will dry out further as summer wears on, making it increasingly susceptible to catching fire.

Though wildfires can happen in California almost any time of year, 17 of the 20 most destructive wildfires in state history have occurred between July and October, after most of the state has typically gone months without a drop of rain. The other three were in November or December, at the ends of long dry periods that mimicked peak fire-season conditions.

Above-average temperatures are expected in the entire state this summer, and particularly in inland areas. So Californians should be on high alert, Swain said.

“Probably by July, we’re going to see a manifestation of a really active fire season,” he said.

Tell us

We’re almost halfway through 2024. Tell us what the best part of your year has been so far, whether it is a special birthday, graduation or just something going well in your life.

Email us at [email protected]. Please include your name and the city in which you live.

And before you go, some good news

Ericka Scott has spent the past several months organizing walking tours around the Fillmore District to highlight the history of Black life in San Francisco.

She has submitted a proposal to the city to formalize the tours, which she says provide historical context about the contributions Black people and businesses have made in the neighborhood, The San Francisco Examiner reports.

Though the tour showcases accomplishments, Scott says she does not want to shy away from the sadder parts of the neighborhood’s history.

“I’m always wanting people to understand the contributions that we make to their city, and to our community, and pointing those kinds of things out,” Scott said.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword.

Halina Bennet and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at [email protected].

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