With Democrats solidly opposed to the impeachment effort and expected Republican absences, Republicans can afford to lose no more than two of their own members on the vote. One Republican, Representative Ken Buck of Colorado, has already stated his opposition, and a handful of others have yet to declare their positions.
Leaders of the impeachment effort, however, have expressed confidence that Mr. Mayorkas will be indicted.
“It is unambiguous that Secretary Mayorkas has refused to comply with federal immigration laws and acted in a manner subversive to the rule of law,” said Representative Mark E. Green, Republican of Tennessee and the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, which prepared the charges, arguing that Mr. Mayorkas’s actions had led to “chaos and destruction across our land.”
If Mr. Mayorkas is impeached, the charges would go to the Democratic-led Senate for a trial where he is all but certain to be acquitted. Leaders have yet to say whether they would hold a full trial, in which a two-thirds majority would be needed to convict the homeland security secretary, or try to dismiss the charges outright without hearing them.
The measure slated for a vote on Tuesday also would appoint 11 impeachment managers to argue the case against Mr. Mayorkas in the Senate, including Mr. Green and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, who has led the charge to bring him up on constitutional charges and seek his removal. The group also includes Representatives Andy Biggs of Arizona, Ben Cline of Virginia, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Andrew Garbarino of New York, Michael Guest of Mississippi, Harriet M. Hageman of Wyoming, Laurel Lee of Florida, Michael McCaul of Texas and August Pfluger of Texas.